Monday, December 24, 2012

Christmas 2012 Storm on the Horizon

     Merry Christmas Eve, folks! As most of you have heard in the chaos of shopping and wrapping presents, a significant severe weather and snow event threatens a large portion of the U.S. this week. This storm will have major impacts with heavy snowfall amounts, strong winds, and even a potentially major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast states on Christmas Day.

12Z NAM run for 12Z December 25, 2012 courtesy of PSU Ewall
     We'll first begin discussing the formation of this potent weather system. An impressive upper-level trough is currently working its way across the Rockies, deepening as it progresses over the leeward side of the mountains. As this cold air moves southward and contacts warm Gulf air early Tuesday morning, significant amount of energy is present for the low pressure to intensify near the Mexico/TX border. Also, the presence of ample moisture will enable heavy snowfall and the tornado/severe weather threat.



    
Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook Categories and Probabilities
     The number one concern from this system is the severe storms to occur in the Gulf states on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook for Christmas Day shows a moderate risk area from central Louisiana extending eastward into west-central Alabama. Extremely strong wind shear and considerable instability in the warm sector of the low pressure system will be the main drive behind the potential for isolated supercells supportive of long-track tornadoes. Along with supercells capable of tornadoes, possible bowing storms will also lead to very damaging winds. Based on simulated radar reflectivities, the severe storms appear to begin in the morning hours of Tuesday and continue through the evening. Residents of these areas should keep informed throughout the day on any severe weather watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.



12/24 12Z NAM Snow Depths courtesy of WeatherBell
     On the opposite end of the weather spectrum, snowfall will also be a major concern for those traveling in the Midwest and Northeast this holiday. Excessive snowfall potential has already led to the issuance of winter storm watches and warnings extending from Oklahoma northeastward towards northwest Ohio and southern Michigan. Snow will likely start falling in Oklahoma early Christmas morning, and will track northeastward into Thursday. The 12Z NAM output shows snowfall depths up to 16" in some areas of the storm track. However, these snowfall amounts are likely overestimated. With the energy and moisture extracted from the Gulf by the highly-probable severe storms in the South, snowfall amounts should remain lower than what is currently forecasted by many models. Totals for much of the areas within the snow swath should remain below 12", with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations of the Appalachians. At any rate, people should exercise extreme caution if traveling on the roads on Tuesday through Thursday. At the airport, expect many delayed and cancelled flights due to this system. Also, be sure to stay tuned to any watches or warnings issued for your area by the National Weather Service.

As with any weather event, follow Stratustatus on Twitter and Facebook below for continuous updates throughout this significant Christmas storm. Happy holidays, and stay safe out there!

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Winter Storm Update: 2:15 PM EST Dec. 20, 2012

The first significant winter weather system for the Midwest is currently underway. This event has prompted blizzard and winter storm warnings in states such as Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Along with white-out conditions, areas in the South have seen severe weather including damaging winds and tornadoes.

Current MSL pressure analysis from the SPC Mesoanalysis shows the deepening low pressure of 984 hPa located over north-central Illinois progressing northwestward. The black lines (known as isobars, or lines of equal pressure) along the western side of the storm are seen very close to one another; this indicates winds at the surface are beginning to strengthen. Wind speeds of 53 mph have been reported at the Davenport, IA airport. Of course, cold air associated with these gusty winds has allowed for heavy snowfall to occur, prompting blizzard conditions in Iowa and Wisconsin (MCD 2193).


Heavy snowfall will continue to occur for the Wisconsin area throughout the evening. Rainfall that is currently occurring the Chicago metro will gradually switch over to frozen precipitation in the next few hours, creating an extremely hazardous rush hour commute. Snowfall in Wisconsin and northwest IL could exceed 12" in some areas. As for areas south of the Chicago area, snowfall amounts should be limited to the 2-4" range. Lake-enhanced snowfall is likely to occur in the early morning hours of Friday, 12/21 in northern Indiana and western Michigan.

 Here's a video looking at the blizzard conditions as of 10 AM this morning: http://youtu.be/nAtQc-LQV50


Continue to follow Stratustatus on our media outlets below for updates throughout the afternoon and evening on this major winter event:
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Monday, November 26, 2012

Winter is on its way


One of the greatest times of the season is Thanksgiving. Between the Turkey, Football, and the fight for Black Friday deals a wave of Winter has decided to make its way into the Midwest and Northeast this holiday weekend. The upper Great Plains and Montana have already been battling winter's wrath with Blizzard and Winter Storm warnings punishing the region. Now I can honestly say that the winter season is here to stay for Midwestern and Northeastern families.

Our Thanksgiving Day in Indiana was beautiful. We experienced temperatures reaching upwards of 60 degrees with excess amounts of sun. It was perfect weather to go out and throw the football, eat food, drink beverages, and have a great time. During the late evening hours a low front bullied its way through the Midwest with rain and clouds, which led to a drastic temperature change for Friday. 

Friday was a brutal welcoming of Winter with snow flurries invading the region. Also, the first bouts of lake effect snow hit home in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and upstate New York. Is this just a precursor to the winter we will receive? Only time will tell.

We will be posting on weather related discussing later this week.

Thanks,

The Stratustatus Team

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Been so long

We are writing in to apologize for our blog hiatus. All of us were extremely caught up in tough coursework like Synoptic and Physical Meteorology. We vow to become more productive on our blog over the next few months. Stratustatus is working extremely hard to get out potential app off the ground. Thanks for all of the support and we will keep you updated on the what's to come.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Cool Temps for the East: Teleconnection Influences

     Despite the official meteorological start of Autumn still being a few days away, the majority of the East Coast has already been feeling the cool temperatures this week. The passage of two strong cold fronts left overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday evening for much of the Great Lakes region. In Northern Minnesota, overnight temperatures dropped below 30 degrees, prompting freeze warnings for much of the area. It's quite an amazing flip from the unbearable heat we all experience this summer. Now you might be wondering what is causing this swift change in weather; the answer is lies within shifts in teleconnection patterns

     A teleconnection is a statistical linkage between climate anomalies over a large distance. These linkages interact with each other in various ways, shifting between positive and negative phases, and ultimately affecting weather and climate patterns for certain parts of the world. Phase shifts for most of these teleconnection patterns can be observed in changing sea surface temperatures for lengths of time. The two teleconnection patterns we will be focusing on with regards to the Eastern U.S. cool down will be the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO).


The North Atlantic Oscillation


     The NAO is a fluctuation in differences between the semi-permanent pressure features in the Atlantic known as Azores High and the Icelandic Low. In the positive phase of the NAO, the two pressures strengthen, increasing the strength of the jet stream. The strong jet stream prevents cold air from the Arctic intruding southward into lower latitudes, keeping the Eastern U.S. warm and wet. In the negative phase, the Azores High and Icelandic Low weaken, in turn weakening the jet stream and increasing the amplitude of troughs and ridges. The increased meridional flow can promote a blocking pattern, keeping a trough located over the eastern half of the country.

     We are currently in a negative phase of the NAO, resulting in the intrusion of Arctic air into the Great Lakes and Northeast regions of the United States. This negative phase has also resulted in a well-established a blocking pattern in the jet stream, keeping this cold air in the region. Below is a look at the current 500 millibar heights showing this pattern:




The Arctic Oscillation

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/arctic_oscillation1.jpg

     The AO is related to the pressure differences in the Arctic and midlatitudes. During the positive phase (pictured on the left in the above graphic), strong low pressure in the polar region strengthens the east-west flow of the jet stream, locking cold air in the Arctic regions. When the AO shifts into a negative phase, zonal flow of the jet stream weakens and allows for cold air to move into the midlatitude regions.


    Above is the current AO index. Currently, the AO is also in a negative phase, indicating strong polar air infiltration into the U.S. This, in combination with the negative NAO phase has resulted in the prolonged below normal temperatures for the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast. The blocking pattern appears to persist for the next week, bringing waves of Arctic air into these regions. Below is the five day temperature anomaly including this coming weekend.





However, forecast models are indicating a shift in these indices, leading to the return of slightly warmer air in the later half of the 0-16 forecast period. Below is showing the five day temperature anomaly two weeks out.



Graphics courtesy of WeatherBELL Models, the Climate Prediction Center, and NSIDC.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

The Man Known as Mr. Tornado


Tetsuya Fujita was born in Kitakyushu City, Japan on October 23, 1920 (Notable).  He displayed critical thinking at a very young age (Rosenfeld 24). Supposedly his teacher one day in class discussed a picture of a monk, who spent 30 years digging a tunnel (Rosenfeld 24). Fujita cleverly stated that he would have spent 15 years building a burrowing machine and the other 15 years digging that tunnel (Rosenfeld 24). This would have left a tool for humanity along with the tunnel (Rosenfeld 24). Little did he know that someday he would generate great advancements in Meteorology.
            Fujita received his collegiate schooling from Meiji College in Kyushu(Notable). Although he majored in engineering, Fujita really enjoyed the sciences (Notable). This love for geology,weather, and math benefited the atmospheric science field forever (Notable).
          Fujita’s discoveries were part of a process that developed over a long period of time. He began to examine severe storms at the age of 27 (Rosenfeld 20). This was when he started plotting the direction of cloud-to-ground lightning (Rosenfeld 20). He would also record the time between the lightning flash and its thunder (Rosenfeld 20). This study concluded that thunderstorms had three lightning coordinates of activity (Rosenfeld 20).  The next study was over his analysis of the severe thunderstorms theory. Fujita began to graph paths of storms and taught himself how to draw many different kinds of cartography figures (Rosenfeld 20). He would immerse himself in the storm to record barometric pressures (Rosenfeld 21). Low barometric pressures are associated with storm activity while higher-pressure readings correlate with calmer atmospheric conditions. His study found that barometric pressure rose during the dissipating stage of a thunderstorm, which correlates with higher pressure (Rosenfeld 21). This went against the initial theories that stated storms were mostly composed of low pressure (Rosenfeld 21).  This find grabbed international attention, especially from meteorologists in the United States. His graphing skills along with basic weather tools led to the “Thundernose Concept”, which took the American Thunderstorm Project millions of dollars to understand (Rosenfeld 21).
            After his move to Chicago, Ted Fujita and Morris Tepper developed Mesoscale Meteorology (Rosenfeld 21). This is the research and analysis of atmospheric fronts up to the size of 600 miles wide (Rosenfeld 21). This focused his studies on the complexity of thunderstorms along with squall lines (Rosenfeld 21). Squall lines are a specific type of thunderstorm that usually contain very high wind speeds. He would graph these systems and analyze the positioning of the dots with mathematical equations (Rosenfeld 21). These extensive studies led him to pioneer updraft and downdraft radar (Rosenfeld 21). Downdrafts indicate a weakening or final stage of the storm system. Sometimes high winds are associated with downdrafts. Updrafts indicate unstable air that lead to cumulonimbus clouds and storm development.
            This new sub-field of meteorology contained the theories of downbursts and microbursts. He first encountered this concept during his investigative research into the Atomic bombings of Japan (Rosenfeld 22). He theorized of straight-line vertical winds hit the earth’s surface and forcefully made it’s way through the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (Rosenfeld 23). Atmospheric downbursts and microbursts are scaled down versions compared to the atomic bomb (Rosenfeld 22). He named this a sub-category of wind due to its intensity and potential danger to the public. Naming microbursts and downbursts as a form of wind promoted greater awareness of the phenomena.
            In 1971, Fujita’s interest in tornados led to the creation of the Fujita Tornado Scale, which was  his biggest contribution to atmospheric science (McDonald 63). This scale was needed to create both a database of tornados as well as to earmark extreme velocities of tornados. This understanding would aid  in making buildings more wind resistant (McDonald 64). Fujita decided to separate tornadoes into six different categories. F0/F1 tornados represent light to moderate damage with winds between 18-50m/s (Fujita Scale). F2/F3 tornados represent considerable to severe damage with winds between 51-92m/s (Fujita Scale). F4/F5 tornados are the most catastrophic, with winds starting around 93m/s and top out at up to 142m/s (Fujita Scale).
            A tornado is a very difficult weather phenomena to track. The small sizes of these storm systems make them nearly impossible to record with weather stations. Before the contributions of Fujita, the only tornado climatology studies conducted were mappings and calculations of the number of tornadoes per year for counties, states, and regions (Forbes 74).  Fujita compiled physical descriptions of damage and debris that correlated with wind speeds of a tornado (McDonald 65). These descriptions were then used to create a tornado database (Forbes 75). Fujita, along with his staff, went back as far as 1916 to begin the classification of cited tornados as well as their mapped paths (Forbes 74).
            The development and perfection of the Fujita scale was a time consuming process. Fujita, the weather detective, admitted that there are potential flaws to the system (McDonald 66). The variables include the damage assessment of a tornado in an open field and the quality of building structures (McDonald 66). He also noted the maximum F-scale wind only effects a small percent of the total damage area (Forbes 75). In order to understand wind speed velocities Fujita, along with his colleges, conducted aerial surveys where they would take photographs of the damage area (Forbes 74). Fujita and his staff conducted over 300 aerial damage trips (Rosenfeld 23). He then applied photogrammetry to the pictures he took on these surveys (Forbes 73). Photogrammetry is the art of making maps and calculations from photographs and even satellite imagery (Forbes 73). From these calculations Fujita developed a table that represented the F-scale damage percent of each F-scale tornado (Forbes 75).
            One of the notable tornado outbreaks Fujita researched was the Palm Sunday Outbreak of April 11-12, 1965 (Snow). This was when the multiple vortex tornado theory was developed (Snow). The multiple vortex tornados contain a system of smaller tornados wrapping around a common central point (Snow). This storm outbreak killed 260 while injuring another 3,400 people (Palm Sunday Outbreak). There were a total of 51 tornados that brought a damage toll to over 200 million dollars (Palm Sunday Outbreak).
            Once the Fujita scale was implemented there was a drastic rise in tornado frequency (Forbes 75). He and many others credit the spike in tornado frequency along with the decreased fatality rate to the drastic increase in public awareness of tornado activity (Forbes 75).            
            Fujita’s meteorological innovation spanned his whole life. His thought process consistently produced ideas such as Mesoscale meteorology, downbursts, and microbursts, which ultimately led to the Fujita Scale system. He had strong math, critical thinking, and graphing skills. Unlike most meteorologists Fujita did not rely on computers to do the analysis (Chicago). He was quoted for saying, “Computers don’t understand these things” (Chicago). He contributed 43 years of service to the field of meteorology. He was a brilliant inventor that continued to do research until his death in 1998 (Chicago).


Works Cited

 

  • Forbes, Gregory S., and Howard B. Bluestein. "Tornadoes, Tornadic Thunderstorms, and Photogrammetry: A Review of the Contributions by T. T.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82.1 (2001):73. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 23 Jan. 2011.
  • “Fujita scale." Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia, 6th Edition (2010): 1. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 23 Jan. 2011.
  • McDonald, James R. "T. Theodore Fujita: His Contribution to Tornado Knowledge through Damage Documentation and the." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82.1 (2001): 63. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 23 Jan. 2011.
  • “Palm Sunday Outbreak.” Nationalgeographic.com. 1996. National Geographic. Web. Feb 9. 2011.
  • Rosenfeld, Jeff. "Mr. Tornado." Weatherwise 52.3 (1999): 18. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 20 Jan. 2011.
  • Snow, Justin. “T. Theodore Fujita.” Britannica.com. Web. Feb 9. 2011
  • “Tetsuya Fujita.” Notablebiographies.com. Advameg, Inc. Web. 24 Jan. 2011.
  • “Tetsuya “Ted” Fujita, 1920-1998.” Uchicago.edu. Jun 14. 2000. University of Chicago. Web. Jan 24. 2011.



Sunday, September 16, 2012

Indiana Weather: Case Study:(September 13-14, 2012)


           Between Thursday, September 13, 2012 and Friday, September 14, 2012, a weak storm system pushed through Indiana. This particular system did not produce and severe weather, however, it brought some needed showers for Indiana’s dry soils. The most recent drought monitor, retrieved from www.drought.gov, shows that the majority of Indiana is still under D1 Category, indicating moderate drought, and areas to the south are seeing severe drought (D2).
Figure 1: Drought Monitor (September 11, 2012)
www.drought.gov

                In Figure 2 (Surface Map Image), a dome of high pressure dominated over the east coast and into Indiana on September 12, 2012 during the evening (Approximately 8:15pm EDT). There was also a well-defined cold front pushing its way through Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas bringing showers to those states.  Notice in the Infrared Satellite, the cloud cover associated with these lines for storms.  

Figure 2: Surface Map : September 12, 2012 (8:15pm EDT)

Figure 3: Infrared Satellite September 12, 2012 (8:01 pm EDT)

  
                By 8:15 pm EDT September 13, 2012, the cold front enters Indiana with showers closely behind in Illinois (Figure 4). On the 850 mb map (approx. 1 mile above the surface), you can see the defined frontal boundary, Gulf moisture feeding into the system, and the cold air influence from Canada. (Arrows on Figure 
5 show this).

Figure 4: Surface Map September 13, 2012 (8:15pm EDT)



850 mb Map: September 13, 2012 (8:00 pm EDT)

 The rain finally arrived overnight, and by 8 am September 14th, the system became a bit more unorganized at the surface by the morning (Figure 6). The cold front had turned stationary, which left lingering showers in the area throughout the morning and early the afternoon hours.  By that evening, high pressure dominated the Indiana/Illinois region (Figure 7 ), once again, and the front pushed away toward the east coast.
Figure 6: Surface Map September 14, 2012 (8:15 am EDT)
Figure 7: Surface Map September 14, 2012 (8:15 pm EDT)

This low pressure system did not cause any severe weather and there were no severe weather reports, according to the Storm Prediction Center’s website (www.spc.noaa.gov). After analyzing the 300mb chart, the polar jet stream stayed to the north, which is one possibility on why this front did not produce any thunderstorms because of the lack of wind shear (Figure 8). 
Figure 8: 300 mb September 12, 2012 (8:00 am EDT)

Another reason that this system could’ve been weak was how the front became disorganized when it was residing over the state. Overall, this might have been a weak system to move through Indiana however, every little bit counts when the state is trying to recover from the exceptional drought that occurred last summer.

Surface Map Images and Upper Level Maps retrieved from: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/index.php

Monday, September 10, 2012

Impact of TS Leslie on Newfoundland & Labrador

This Atlantic Hurricane Season continues to surprise as Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued along the coasts of Newfoundland. It is not that uncommon but we would like to analyze it impact on the region over the next 24 hours. 

  • Canadian Province: Newfoundland and Labrador
    • Population: 500,000+
  • Primary City Impacted:  St. John's, Newfoundland
    • Population: Metro: 196,000+
  • Tropical Storm Leslie
    • Maximum Wind Speeds: 70mph
    • Wind Gusts: 85mph
    • Movement: NNE at 31mph


The rapid rise of elevation should help reduce inland flooding. Tropical Storm Leslie will move past rapidly and looks maintain its intensity over the next 36 hours. The speed to the storm will lead to minimal residence time over the island. The precipitation map from Hamweather.net states that 24-hour precip will vary from 1-5 inches across the island. Leslie will make landfall this morning and will then travel to Iceland as a 60mph tropical storm.  




Sunday, September 9, 2012

Hurricane Preparedness




            September 10th marks peak season for hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Many people living along or near the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States should really consider creating a disaster plan for their families and themselves if you already don’t have one!
            The first step for hurricane preparations would be to plan different routes if you and your family had to be evacuated for an approaching hurricane or tropical storm. Deciding to evacuate can be a difficult decision and typically has to be made within a short time span. Traffic pile-ups often sway an individual’s decision on whether to evacuate or not, which is why planning a route is beneficial to avoid horrible traffic jams. Also, planning a safe destination, whether in a hotel or other family member’s home, is vital for a successful evacuation. This ensures you and your family’s safety when you finally arrive at the preplanned location. 


Figure 1 www.nytimes.com (Damage Hurricane Ike)
            Creating a survival kit is another must if you are in a disaster (hurricane or not!) prone area. During severe weather events, many homes and businesses lose their power, which means one has to plan their food choices and water supply accordingly. The American Red Cross’s website offers lists of various supplies that are necessary to include in you survival kit. The first list includes the most basic supplies that are highly recommended, and also include secondary lists that would be beneficial to you and your family’s needs. It is highly suggested that you check out the American Red Cross’ website and create a survival kit just in case of an event of a disaster (or hurricane). 

Website for the American Red Cross: http://www.redcross.org/prepare/location/home-family


            Taking inventory of your household items is another suggestion you might want to consider while preparing for a hurricane/tropical storm for insurance reasons. By doing this, you are providing pictures of your home and personal belongings before the disaster has occurred. After the storm has passed, you can take pictures of your items and home after the storm, and present them to your insurance company. This helps you while you inventory the aftermath, and shows the insurance companies the actual damages from the storm.
            One of the last tasks one should remember is covering all your windows or opening to your home. Hurricane shutters are ideal in this situation, but not many homes or businesses have access to them. Boarding up windows with wood is an alternative that could help protect your home as well. Placing sandbags around your home is another way to provide damage prevention to help block possible flooding and storm surge.

Figure 2: Ramanathan | Aug 29, 2012 (Isaac) http://www.ibtimes.com
              Finally if you are a pet owner, please do not forget your pet(s)! They too need to be included in your disaster plan because not all hotels are “pet friendly”, and pets also need necessary supplies, such as water and food.
            Hurricanes and tropical storms are only two disasters out of many that can occur. Every household, no matter your location, should make plans for disasters. Businesses also should consider having disaster plans to protect themselves and their faculty. A disaster can happen at any time, so it is better to be prepared for when it happens!