Showing posts with label Meteorology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Meteorology. Show all posts

Monday, January 14, 2013

Weekly Weather Update: Jan. 14-21, 2013

For the week of January 14:

An extremely cold air mass has pushed its way southward into the Western and Central United States on Monday. This was a large departure from the unseasonably high temperatures experienced by much of the Eastern half of the country. The sharp temperature contrast between these two air masses can clearly be seen extending from Texas and into E. Canada on the 850 millibar temperature chart below:
Along this steep temperature gradient, persistent rainfall is expected to occur in areas west of the Appalachian from Monday through Wednesday. A strong high pressure located in the Atlantic will block the eastward progressing trough, allowing for moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to funnel its way into areas such as Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia. The overrunning moisture along the frontal boundary will bring moderate to heavy rainfall, likely leading to localized flooding issues in these areas. Below is the three-day quantitative precipitation forecast from the HPC:
Into the weekend, latest models hint at a low pressure system developing in the Alberta province and swinging southward into northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Moderate snowfall and gusty winds could be expected within this region on Saturday/Sunday. The storm can be seen in central Wisconsin on this four-panel chart for Saturday afternoon:




Stratustatus will keep you posted on all the potential weather events this week. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Have a good week!






Saturday, January 5, 2013

The Status of the Stratus

       I will have to write this rather quick due to the fact I have some errands to run in the next hour so here me out. Stratustatus is moving along as we continue to bypass obstacles that may have set us back a little. We are begining to understand how the business environment operates and it is a great learning experience.

       Stratustatus will hopefully have some form of a logo next week (fingers crossed). We have also went along with the addition of a splash page through the website Launchrock. This site is a very neat way to assist in the promotion of you business startup. The look of  and user interface of this page is not the best and will get better I promise.

       This semester looks to be a tough one with the amount of credits (20) that I will be taking. We also hope to launch this application by the end of this semester. I will have a good idea of a launch date when more progress has been executed. That being said the Stratustatus Team will be busting our butts to make our weather app sucessful.

       We are possibly planning to let some individuals test the app before its release to recieve honest and genuine opinions about its user interface, mobility, and flow. This will be a crucial in the output of our final project. Lastly, we plan on getting some promotional events developed around our launch date.

       For anyone that reads this I thank you for your interest in our company. More updates will be given in the upcoming weeks. Be sure to sign up on our webpage here as a way to express your interest in BETA testing.

Thanks for all the support,
Nick Hesterman
CEO of Stratustatus LLC

Monday, December 24, 2012

Christmas 2012 Storm on the Horizon

     Merry Christmas Eve, folks! As most of you have heard in the chaos of shopping and wrapping presents, a significant severe weather and snow event threatens a large portion of the U.S. this week. This storm will have major impacts with heavy snowfall amounts, strong winds, and even a potentially major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast states on Christmas Day.

12Z NAM run for 12Z December 25, 2012 courtesy of PSU Ewall
     We'll first begin discussing the formation of this potent weather system. An impressive upper-level trough is currently working its way across the Rockies, deepening as it progresses over the leeward side of the mountains. As this cold air moves southward and contacts warm Gulf air early Tuesday morning, significant amount of energy is present for the low pressure to intensify near the Mexico/TX border. Also, the presence of ample moisture will enable heavy snowfall and the tornado/severe weather threat.



    
Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook Categories and Probabilities
     The number one concern from this system is the severe storms to occur in the Gulf states on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook for Christmas Day shows a moderate risk area from central Louisiana extending eastward into west-central Alabama. Extremely strong wind shear and considerable instability in the warm sector of the low pressure system will be the main drive behind the potential for isolated supercells supportive of long-track tornadoes. Along with supercells capable of tornadoes, possible bowing storms will also lead to very damaging winds. Based on simulated radar reflectivities, the severe storms appear to begin in the morning hours of Tuesday and continue through the evening. Residents of these areas should keep informed throughout the day on any severe weather watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.



12/24 12Z NAM Snow Depths courtesy of WeatherBell
     On the opposite end of the weather spectrum, snowfall will also be a major concern for those traveling in the Midwest and Northeast this holiday. Excessive snowfall potential has already led to the issuance of winter storm watches and warnings extending from Oklahoma northeastward towards northwest Ohio and southern Michigan. Snow will likely start falling in Oklahoma early Christmas morning, and will track northeastward into Thursday. The 12Z NAM output shows snowfall depths up to 16" in some areas of the storm track. However, these snowfall amounts are likely overestimated. With the energy and moisture extracted from the Gulf by the highly-probable severe storms in the South, snowfall amounts should remain lower than what is currently forecasted by many models. Totals for much of the areas within the snow swath should remain below 12", with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations of the Appalachians. At any rate, people should exercise extreme caution if traveling on the roads on Tuesday through Thursday. At the airport, expect many delayed and cancelled flights due to this system. Also, be sure to stay tuned to any watches or warnings issued for your area by the National Weather Service.

As with any weather event, follow Stratustatus on Twitter and Facebook below for continuous updates throughout this significant Christmas storm. Happy holidays, and stay safe out there!

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Cool Temps for the East: Teleconnection Influences

     Despite the official meteorological start of Autumn still being a few days away, the majority of the East Coast has already been feeling the cool temperatures this week. The passage of two strong cold fronts left overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday evening for much of the Great Lakes region. In Northern Minnesota, overnight temperatures dropped below 30 degrees, prompting freeze warnings for much of the area. It's quite an amazing flip from the unbearable heat we all experience this summer. Now you might be wondering what is causing this swift change in weather; the answer is lies within shifts in teleconnection patterns

     A teleconnection is a statistical linkage between climate anomalies over a large distance. These linkages interact with each other in various ways, shifting between positive and negative phases, and ultimately affecting weather and climate patterns for certain parts of the world. Phase shifts for most of these teleconnection patterns can be observed in changing sea surface temperatures for lengths of time. The two teleconnection patterns we will be focusing on with regards to the Eastern U.S. cool down will be the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO).


The North Atlantic Oscillation


     The NAO is a fluctuation in differences between the semi-permanent pressure features in the Atlantic known as Azores High and the Icelandic Low. In the positive phase of the NAO, the two pressures strengthen, increasing the strength of the jet stream. The strong jet stream prevents cold air from the Arctic intruding southward into lower latitudes, keeping the Eastern U.S. warm and wet. In the negative phase, the Azores High and Icelandic Low weaken, in turn weakening the jet stream and increasing the amplitude of troughs and ridges. The increased meridional flow can promote a blocking pattern, keeping a trough located over the eastern half of the country.

     We are currently in a negative phase of the NAO, resulting in the intrusion of Arctic air into the Great Lakes and Northeast regions of the United States. This negative phase has also resulted in a well-established a blocking pattern in the jet stream, keeping this cold air in the region. Below is a look at the current 500 millibar heights showing this pattern:




The Arctic Oscillation

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/arctic_oscillation1.jpg

     The AO is related to the pressure differences in the Arctic and midlatitudes. During the positive phase (pictured on the left in the above graphic), strong low pressure in the polar region strengthens the east-west flow of the jet stream, locking cold air in the Arctic regions. When the AO shifts into a negative phase, zonal flow of the jet stream weakens and allows for cold air to move into the midlatitude regions.


    Above is the current AO index. Currently, the AO is also in a negative phase, indicating strong polar air infiltration into the U.S. This, in combination with the negative NAO phase has resulted in the prolonged below normal temperatures for the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast. The blocking pattern appears to persist for the next week, bringing waves of Arctic air into these regions. Below is the five day temperature anomaly including this coming weekend.





However, forecast models are indicating a shift in these indices, leading to the return of slightly warmer air in the later half of the 0-16 forecast period. Below is showing the five day temperature anomaly two weeks out.



Graphics courtesy of WeatherBELL Models, the Climate Prediction Center, and NSIDC.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

The Man Known as Mr. Tornado


Tetsuya Fujita was born in Kitakyushu City, Japan on October 23, 1920 (Notable).  He displayed critical thinking at a very young age (Rosenfeld 24). Supposedly his teacher one day in class discussed a picture of a monk, who spent 30 years digging a tunnel (Rosenfeld 24). Fujita cleverly stated that he would have spent 15 years building a burrowing machine and the other 15 years digging that tunnel (Rosenfeld 24). This would have left a tool for humanity along with the tunnel (Rosenfeld 24). Little did he know that someday he would generate great advancements in Meteorology.
            Fujita received his collegiate schooling from Meiji College in Kyushu(Notable). Although he majored in engineering, Fujita really enjoyed the sciences (Notable). This love for geology,weather, and math benefited the atmospheric science field forever (Notable).
          Fujita’s discoveries were part of a process that developed over a long period of time. He began to examine severe storms at the age of 27 (Rosenfeld 20). This was when he started plotting the direction of cloud-to-ground lightning (Rosenfeld 20). He would also record the time between the lightning flash and its thunder (Rosenfeld 20). This study concluded that thunderstorms had three lightning coordinates of activity (Rosenfeld 20).  The next study was over his analysis of the severe thunderstorms theory. Fujita began to graph paths of storms and taught himself how to draw many different kinds of cartography figures (Rosenfeld 20). He would immerse himself in the storm to record barometric pressures (Rosenfeld 21). Low barometric pressures are associated with storm activity while higher-pressure readings correlate with calmer atmospheric conditions. His study found that barometric pressure rose during the dissipating stage of a thunderstorm, which correlates with higher pressure (Rosenfeld 21). This went against the initial theories that stated storms were mostly composed of low pressure (Rosenfeld 21).  This find grabbed international attention, especially from meteorologists in the United States. His graphing skills along with basic weather tools led to the “Thundernose Concept”, which took the American Thunderstorm Project millions of dollars to understand (Rosenfeld 21).
            After his move to Chicago, Ted Fujita and Morris Tepper developed Mesoscale Meteorology (Rosenfeld 21). This is the research and analysis of atmospheric fronts up to the size of 600 miles wide (Rosenfeld 21). This focused his studies on the complexity of thunderstorms along with squall lines (Rosenfeld 21). Squall lines are a specific type of thunderstorm that usually contain very high wind speeds. He would graph these systems and analyze the positioning of the dots with mathematical equations (Rosenfeld 21). These extensive studies led him to pioneer updraft and downdraft radar (Rosenfeld 21). Downdrafts indicate a weakening or final stage of the storm system. Sometimes high winds are associated with downdrafts. Updrafts indicate unstable air that lead to cumulonimbus clouds and storm development.
            This new sub-field of meteorology contained the theories of downbursts and microbursts. He first encountered this concept during his investigative research into the Atomic bombings of Japan (Rosenfeld 22). He theorized of straight-line vertical winds hit the earth’s surface and forcefully made it’s way through the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (Rosenfeld 23). Atmospheric downbursts and microbursts are scaled down versions compared to the atomic bomb (Rosenfeld 22). He named this a sub-category of wind due to its intensity and potential danger to the public. Naming microbursts and downbursts as a form of wind promoted greater awareness of the phenomena.
            In 1971, Fujita’s interest in tornados led to the creation of the Fujita Tornado Scale, which was  his biggest contribution to atmospheric science (McDonald 63). This scale was needed to create both a database of tornados as well as to earmark extreme velocities of tornados. This understanding would aid  in making buildings more wind resistant (McDonald 64). Fujita decided to separate tornadoes into six different categories. F0/F1 tornados represent light to moderate damage with winds between 18-50m/s (Fujita Scale). F2/F3 tornados represent considerable to severe damage with winds between 51-92m/s (Fujita Scale). F4/F5 tornados are the most catastrophic, with winds starting around 93m/s and top out at up to 142m/s (Fujita Scale).
            A tornado is a very difficult weather phenomena to track. The small sizes of these storm systems make them nearly impossible to record with weather stations. Before the contributions of Fujita, the only tornado climatology studies conducted were mappings and calculations of the number of tornadoes per year for counties, states, and regions (Forbes 74).  Fujita compiled physical descriptions of damage and debris that correlated with wind speeds of a tornado (McDonald 65). These descriptions were then used to create a tornado database (Forbes 75). Fujita, along with his staff, went back as far as 1916 to begin the classification of cited tornados as well as their mapped paths (Forbes 74).
            The development and perfection of the Fujita scale was a time consuming process. Fujita, the weather detective, admitted that there are potential flaws to the system (McDonald 66). The variables include the damage assessment of a tornado in an open field and the quality of building structures (McDonald 66). He also noted the maximum F-scale wind only effects a small percent of the total damage area (Forbes 75). In order to understand wind speed velocities Fujita, along with his colleges, conducted aerial surveys where they would take photographs of the damage area (Forbes 74). Fujita and his staff conducted over 300 aerial damage trips (Rosenfeld 23). He then applied photogrammetry to the pictures he took on these surveys (Forbes 73). Photogrammetry is the art of making maps and calculations from photographs and even satellite imagery (Forbes 73). From these calculations Fujita developed a table that represented the F-scale damage percent of each F-scale tornado (Forbes 75).
            One of the notable tornado outbreaks Fujita researched was the Palm Sunday Outbreak of April 11-12, 1965 (Snow). This was when the multiple vortex tornado theory was developed (Snow). The multiple vortex tornados contain a system of smaller tornados wrapping around a common central point (Snow). This storm outbreak killed 260 while injuring another 3,400 people (Palm Sunday Outbreak). There were a total of 51 tornados that brought a damage toll to over 200 million dollars (Palm Sunday Outbreak).
            Once the Fujita scale was implemented there was a drastic rise in tornado frequency (Forbes 75). He and many others credit the spike in tornado frequency along with the decreased fatality rate to the drastic increase in public awareness of tornado activity (Forbes 75).            
            Fujita’s meteorological innovation spanned his whole life. His thought process consistently produced ideas such as Mesoscale meteorology, downbursts, and microbursts, which ultimately led to the Fujita Scale system. He had strong math, critical thinking, and graphing skills. Unlike most meteorologists Fujita did not rely on computers to do the analysis (Chicago). He was quoted for saying, “Computers don’t understand these things” (Chicago). He contributed 43 years of service to the field of meteorology. He was a brilliant inventor that continued to do research until his death in 1998 (Chicago).


Works Cited

 

  • Forbes, Gregory S., and Howard B. Bluestein. "Tornadoes, Tornadic Thunderstorms, and Photogrammetry: A Review of the Contributions by T. T.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82.1 (2001):73. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 23 Jan. 2011.
  • “Fujita scale." Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia, 6th Edition (2010): 1. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 23 Jan. 2011.
  • McDonald, James R. "T. Theodore Fujita: His Contribution to Tornado Knowledge through Damage Documentation and the." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82.1 (2001): 63. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 23 Jan. 2011.
  • “Palm Sunday Outbreak.” Nationalgeographic.com. 1996. National Geographic. Web. Feb 9. 2011.
  • Rosenfeld, Jeff. "Mr. Tornado." Weatherwise 52.3 (1999): 18. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 20 Jan. 2011.
  • Snow, Justin. “T. Theodore Fujita.” Britannica.com. Web. Feb 9. 2011
  • “Tetsuya Fujita.” Notablebiographies.com. Advameg, Inc. Web. 24 Jan. 2011.
  • “Tetsuya “Ted” Fujita, 1920-1998.” Uchicago.edu. Jun 14. 2000. University of Chicago. Web. Jan 24. 2011.